This time, the topic was how we thought technology would transform human reality in the next 10 years. We discussed this at length, and created a list of predictions on what we expected to happen. I decided to publish my personal version of that list, which I’ll revisit every year to track how we’re doing.
Progress: last updated 18 Nov 2020
Without further ado, here goes the list of things I believe will happen before 31 December 2025:
✅ A.I. beats humans at StarCraft. [done]
⬜ A.I. beats humans at NASCAR race.
⬜ A.I. beats humans at flying drone race.
⬜ A.I. beats humans at golf.
⬜ A.I. beats humans at tennis.
⬜ People have ongoing relationships with chat bots for entertainment.
⬜ Some A.I. is a profitable autonomus economic agent. (e.g. there’s a web service, API or site that is running for 1 year without any human aid and is making a profit.)
⬜ Some A.I. generated music “band” has more than 1 million monthly listeners on Spotify or equivalent platform.
⬜ Some A.I. generated painting or visual artwork sells for more than $100k at 2016 value.
Robotics and automation
⬜ More than a billion people own a personal autonomous mobile robot for home tasks.
⬜ Two-legged robot can navigate any terrain as good as a human or better.
⬜ Ground transportation and daily commute dominated by self-driving vehicles.
⬜ At least 1 million 3d printers are produced in 2025.
⬜ At least one of Aubrey de Grey’s 7 causes of death is “cured” (i.e. we know how to prevent it).
⬜ We can perform some genetic engineering on our children before birth for less than $1000 at today’s value.
⬜ It is possible to use a computer as efficiently as with mouse and keyboard with just a brain interface for the input. Note this prediction doesn’t mention price or mass availability of the technology.
⬜ Artificial meat indistinguishable from real meat and is cheaper to produce.
⬜ More electric cars are sold in a year than combustion cars.
⬜ More than a billion humans own VR equipment.
⬜ Some people spend 20+ hours per week in VR.
⬜ VR company in top 10 most valuable companies.
⬜ US dollar collapses (e.g. loses 50% of its value with respect to most other assets)
⬜ San Francisco real estate prices go down because remote work becomes ubiquitous.
⬜ 20%+ unemployment rate in the US (but that’s OK).
⬜ Average hours per week of work needed by a human to survive drops significantly (at least one order of magnitude)
⬜ Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter will have less monthly active users in 2025 than in 2020 (~2.6 billion, ~1 billion, ~330 million, respectively). [added in 2020]
That’s it! I think many points are pretty bold, so I’d be happy if >50% of these turn out to be true. In any case, that would be an amazing world to live in. If you find better ways to formulate the predictions, or have others you think I should consider adding, I’d love to hear it.
See you in 10 years! ;)